The Socialist Party (PSOE) will win the upcoming general election in Spain with between 123 and 138 of the 350 seats in Congress, followed by the conservative Popular Party (66-76), Citizens (Ciudadanos, 42-51), Unidas Podemos and En Comú Podem (the former a coalition of the United Left party and Podemos, and the latter the Catalan formation of Podemos with other parties), and far-right group Vox (29-37). That’s according to the latest opinion poll carried out by Spain’s CIS public research institute, the results of which were made public on Tuesday.

If these predictions turn out to be correct, the only guaranteed absolute majority would result from a deal between the PSOE and Ciudadanos – but the latter party has already categorically ruled out doing any kind of deal with the Socialists. But depending on the exact outcome of the election the PSOE could also form a government with the support of Podemos, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and left-wing Valencian coalition group Compromís – without having to rely on Catalan nationalist parties for support.

If the poll is correct, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) – a pro-independence party known in English as the Republican Left of Catalonia – would see a significant increase in seats, jumping from its current nine to 14-15.